Running on empty: How the Middle East war is squeezing jet fuel markets, with Susan Bell

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Let’s Talk Energy and take the pulse of the aviation industry as it struggles to source enough fuel as the Middle East war dries up global supplies.

Airlines are facing their biggest test since Covid. While Brent futures are up 70+% this year, jet fuel prices have doubled in Europe and risen 110% in Asia over 2025 averages.

The situation caused the CEO of United Airlines to warn ticket prices could increase by about 20%. Lufthansa canceled 20,000 flights that it said were no longer profitable. US budget carrier Spirit Airlines stopped flying altogether after declaring bankruptcy. And finally, Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), warned that Europe could start running out of jet fuel in as little as six weeks.

How has the war hit jet fuel supplies, and why has the price squeeze been even worse for jet than for crude?

How are refiners reacting to the shortage, and do high prices necessarily mean high margins for the sector?

What can countries do – short of grounding flights – to manage this market and help consumers cope with the runup in prices?

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