David Rosenberg Warns The Mother of Consumer Recessions Is Here

The AI boom is masking serious weakness across the US economy. David Rosenberg sees stagnant employment, falling real incomes, contracting housing and business investment, and a consumer increasingly dependent on stock-market wealth and record credit-card debt.

Markets have shifted from pricing Federal Reserve cuts to expecting higher interest rates following the US–Iran war and oil shock. Rosenberg thinks that reset will reverse: inflation should move lower, consumer demand should weaken, the Fed should remain on hold and Treasury yields could fall sharply as recession risk returns.

His gold thesis is unchanged. Central banks led by China continue moving reserves away from the US dollar, while gold supply grows slowly. Combined with his outlook for lower real rates, Rosenberg still sees the correction as part of a secular bull market rather than its end.

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