Dan Ivascyn: Secular Shifts, Tail Risks, and Portfolio Resilience

Fresh off publishing PIMCO’s Secular Outlook, “Rupture and Resilience,” Group CIO Dan Ivascyn joins Greg Hall to discuss the structural forces likely to shape markets over the next five years.

From the pervasive role of AI in both equity and debt markets, to a macroeconomy increasingly driven by geopolitics, financial advisors face a new reality: long-term returns rely on preparing for the unexpected. True resilience requires a globally diversified approach both to generate returns and absorb macro shocks. Dan and Greg analyze these dynamics against today's core uncertainties: the Iran conflict, U.S. fiscal sustainability, and the capex “supercycle” powered by AI, defense, and global re-shoring and supply chain realignment.

Show notes:

(4:30) How politics are shaping economics

(11:50) Planning beyond the base case

(17:00) Why today’s bond math is favorable

(21:00) The Iran conflict & global diversification

(33:00) The state of U.S. creditworthiness

(38:00) Optimism and uncertainty around the CapEx super cycle

(49:00) The start of the credit default cycle

(54:00) The tipping point in financial engineering

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