Have we entered the event horizon for a volatility spike?

Today, we look at the hefty risk-off tone across markets, if with a few notable exceptions, as risk assets are justifiably spooked by the further ramping in global bond yields. We argue that the situation feels like it has entered a zone of instability that could see volatility rising further in the near term, not that it has risen that much yet. Elsewhere, a lot of macro and FX coverage, especially on the aggressive spike in front-end Japanese rates to price in a more hawkish BoJ, and yet the yen is sluggish in its response. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

Ole's latest piece pointing out that many integrated oil majors have outperformed many of the top market cap companies and AI hyperscalers on both 1-year and 5-year time horizons.

A Reuters article says G20 should consider raising trade barriers to China for its unfair policies. This sparked an great conversation on X between Steve Hou and the WSJ's Greg Ip on the nature of the US-China relationship and the utility of pursuing a Chinese currency revalution (higher) after Greg Ip wrote an op-ed in favour of the world forcing a CNY reval.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.