Something Just Broke In The Housing Market

"This is where things get weird. Normally, when you were in a buyer's market, that means houses are cheap."

This episode breaks down why the housing market has technically flipped into a buyer's market in 41 of the 50 largest metro areas, even though home prices remain near record highs and mortgage rates sit close to 7%. He explains why this combination has made it cheaper to rent than to buy for the first time in 15 years.

He also walks through the math comparing the cost of owning versus renting the same median home, why mortgage rates are driven by Treasury yields rather than the Federal Reserve directly, and why today's housing market looks very different from the 2008 crash. He also covers the government's recent efforts to make buying a home more affordable and what to watch for to see where mortgage rates go next.

In this episode, you'll learn:

Why home prices (up 27%) and mortgage costs (up 90%) have outpaced income growth (up 13%) since 2021

How the 10-year Treasury yield, not the Fed's federal funds rate, actually drives mortgage rates

The mortgage lock-in effect keeping 69% of homeowners locked into rates under 5%

How 2026 housing conditions compare to 2008, including underwater homeowners, housing supply, and foreclosures

The Trump administration's housing initiatives, including AI powered appraisals, the Trump IRA, and limits on Wall Street home buying

The math comparing buying versus renting the same median home over a 10 year period

Why Jaspreet treats the home he lives in as a liability rather than an investment

The three signals to watch for where mortgage rates go next: inflation, the job market, and housing inventory