No ROI Yet. Fewer Recessions. Are You Making More Money? | 4 Things We Learned This Week

<p>This week's Excess Returns Weekly Wrap examines when AI spending will translate into measurable end-user ROI, why the U.S. business cycle may now produce fewer recessions, and how Federal Reserve policy could combine lower short-term rates with a smaller balance sheet. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down insights from Andy Constan, Azeem Azhar and Aahan Menon on AI productivity, business-cycle shifts, asset prices and the tradeoffs between Wall Street and Main Street.</p><p>Topics covered</p><ul><li><p>Why subsidized AI tokens may be masking the true economics of end-user ROI</p></li><li><p>The difference between personal productivity gains, cost savings and measurable business profits</p></li><li><p>How the transition from electric light bulbs to assembly lines explains AI process redesign</p></li><li><p>Why adding more copilots cannot turn a legacy company into an AI-native enterprise</p></li><li><p>The productivity J-curve and why promising AI investments may initially look unprofitable</p></li><li><p>How the shift from manufacturing toward services and technology changed the business cycle</p></li><li><p>Why housing and industrial indicators may be less reliable signals for the broader economy</p></li><li><p>How consumer conditions, equity wealth and technology investment increasingly drive growth</p></li><li><p>Why stronger balance sheets and policy intervention may be reducing recession frequency</p></li><li><p>How lower short-term rates and a smaller Fed balance sheet could affect asset prices and inequality</p></li></ul><p>Timestamps</p><p>00:00 Intro and this week's triple-A lineup<br />04:00 AI's long-term promise and medium-term transition risk<br />08:18 Azeem Azhar on electricity as a model for AI adoption<br />12:28 Why more copilots cannot create an AI-native company<br />16:39 How services and technology changed the business cycle<br />21:20 Why policy intervention may be smoothing recessions<br />26:00 How Fed policy could rebalance Wall Street and Main Street<br />30:05 Closing thoughts and where to follow Excess Returns</p><p>Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:<br /><a href="https://excessreturns.co/" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://excessreturns.co</a><br />No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.</p><p></p>