Uncapped #48 | Tarek Mansour from Kalshi

<p>Tarek Mansour is the co-founder and CEO of Kalshi.</p>

<p>Kalshi is a regulated prediction market exchange valued at $22B in 2026 where people trade on the outcomes of real-world events – things like inflation prints, Fed decisions, elections, or weather events. Instead of betting against a house, users trade against each other in a market, and prices reflect the collective probability of an outcome happening.</p>

<p>Before starting Kalshi, Tarek worked as a quantitative trader at Goldman Sachs as a structured credit and equities analyst and at Citadel as a global macro trader. During his time at these firms, he realized a common thread: a lot of trading stemmed from an opinion on a future event.</p>

<p>We covered the idea behind prediction markets and how they offer a more direct way to trade on beliefs about the future. The conversation follows the long, difficult path to building a regulated exchange in the U.S., from early skepticism to ultimately winning a landmark legal battle. We also discuss how these markets can improve forecasting, enable new forms of hedging, and change how information gets priced.</p>

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<p>Timestamps:</p>

<p>(0:00) Intro</p>

<p>(0:23) Kalshi’s genesis</p>

<p>(5:05) Regulation-focused from inception</p>

<p>(11:06) Suing the government</p>

<p>(18:02) Gambling vs. financial markets</p>

<p>(20:58) Defining insider trading</p>