#51 - Tyler Cowen - Markets, Institutions and Why AI Hype is (Probably) Overblown

<p>What if the biggest risk from AI isn’t superintelligence gone rogue, but the inflexibility of our human institutions?</p><p><br></p><p>My guest today, Tyler Cowen, thinks so. Tyler is a professor at George Mason university and one of the most celebrated economists in the world. And unlike many AI proponents, Tyler strongly challenges the idea that intelligence alone determines outcomes in society, and instead points to us <em><strong>humans</strong></em> as the real bottlenecks shaping our future, for better or worse.</p><p><br></p><p>Together with my occasional co-host Igor Kurganov, we debate why he thinks diffusion and human adoption matter more than raw capability, and why markets remain one of the most under-appreciated signals in conversations about AI risk. Tyler also shares his views on economic growth, UBI, automation, persuasion, state capacity, why fears of mass unemployment and civilizational collapse are often overstated. </p><p><br></p><p>And of course, we explore what it takes to design win-win systems that scale without collapsing under their own incentives. </p><p><br></p><p>Oh and we discuss aliens too! A really fun one, hope you enjoy.</p><p><br></p><p><strong>Chapters: </strong></p><p>00:00 - Introduction</p><p>01:40 – Market Driven Addiction</p><p>14:38 – Wealth Plus</p><p>17:28 – State Capacity Libertarianism</p><p>25:29 – Why Is Carbon Tax Failing?</p><p>27:14 – Climate Engineering</p><p>29:45 – Pharmaceutical Pricing</p><p>36:45 – Designing Incentives</p><p>37:24 – AI’s Impact on the Economy</p><p>53:24 – AI’s Impact on Tyler</p><p>55:25 – Universal Basic Income</p><p>59:25 – AI Timelines</p><p>01:10:45 – AI Risk Reflected in Markets</p><p>01:18:25 – Convincing Future Risk Scenarios</p><p>01:20:57 – AI as a Super Persuader</p><p>01:30:51 – Is Tyler Competitive?</p><p>01:41:39 – Strangest Beliefs &amp; Aliens</p><p>01:46:14 – Rapid-Fire Predictions</p><p><br><strong>Links: </strong></p><p>♾️ Tyler’s X: <a href="https://x.com/tylercowen?lang=en" target="_blank" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer">https://x.com/tylercowen?lang=en</a> </p><p>♾️ Tyler’s website: <a href="https://tylercowen.com" target="_blank" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer">https://tylercowen.com</a> </p><p>♾️ Tyler’s blog: <a href="https://marginalrevolution.com" target="_blank" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer">https://marginalrevolution.com</a> </p><p>♾️ Meditations on Moloch: <a href="https://www.slatestarcodexabridged.com/Meditations-On-Moloch" target="_blank" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer">https://www.slatestarcodexabridged.com/Meditations-On-Moloch</a> <br></p><p><strong>Credits:</strong></p><p>♾️ Hosted by Liv Boeree</p><p>♾️ Produced by Luca de Vico</p><p><br></p><p><strong>The Win-Win Podcast:</strong></p><p>Poker champion Liv Boeree takes to the interview chair to tease apart the complexities of one of the most fundamental parts of human nature: competition. Liv is joined by top philosophers, gamers, artists, technologists, CEOs, scientists, politicians and more to understand how competition manifests in their world, and how to change seemingly win-lose systems into Win-Wins.</p><p><br></p><p><strong>Podcast links:</strong></p><p>♾️ Youtube:<a href="https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWgq0OZMtwtOIyMsVM_vksqdfWcM-b68S" target="_blank" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer">   </a>https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWgq0OZMtwtOIyMsVM_vksqdfWcM-b68S</p><p>♾️ Spotify:<a href="https://www.youtube.com/redirect?event=video_description&redir_token=QUFFLUhqbnZaal9pbGNRVnhwQW1wSGluVXVFdHpZeGdGd3xBQ3Jtc0trX1F6bzAwUnFWZ2J1Q3M4QzY4VHA5eXh4SHd3TFNqbXZaM3dSd2FhbTB4V2RCaWNXbVdlVjdRUlpKS3ZfNFVOWE41VzJhXzlhZ2tlME0tQldTYmk1bDh1aUxUZjJMdHJVTGRReDZEbGY4MHg1ZEZ0UQ&q=https%3A%2F%2Fopen.spotify.com%2Fshow%2F03bGVUaFZmJUmEvSHNDPdI&v=YAf6DLiPNj0" target="_blank" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer"> </a><a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/03bGVUaFZmJUmEvSHNDPdI?si=64379cc23696454f" target="_blank" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer">https://open.spotify.com/show/03bGVUaFZmJUm