The Preparation Problem

<p>A new working paper from The Anthropic Institute models three versions of the US economy in 2030. In the modest world, AI behaves like a normal technology. In the extreme world, GDP is 32 percent higher, total pay to workers barely moves, and nearly one in five knowledge workers is unemployed. The authors say none of the three can be ruled out today.</p><p>This episode walks through the scenarios, states plainly what the research leaves out, and offers four ideas for how leaders can prepare a workforce without knowing which world arrives. There is no verdict. Each idea ends on the question it leaves open.</p><p>Source: Working Paper 2026-02, a working paper shared for comment. The Institute is affiliated with Anthropic, which builds Claude.</p>