No Country for Bad Trades: Momentum

In this episode, Cam and Joel go deeper into the force behind the Gap and Go strategy: momentum.

Cam breaks down what momentum actually means in the market, why stocks can get repriced violently when institutions realize they were wrong, and how that repricing shows up through gaps, volume, and continuation. Using examples like AGL and HWM, they walk through why some stocks keep running long after most traders would have taken profits.

The conversation also digs into the data behind momentum trading, including R multiples, maximum favorable excursion, Monte Carlo testing, and why a small percentage of trades can account for the majority of returns.

They also cover one of the hardest questions in trading: when do you take profits, and when do you let the trade keep working?

Later in the episode, Cam explains how he’s using AI, backtesting, and his own trade history to study momentum, refine his process, and better understand where rules end and human judgment begins.

⚠️ Best experienced on Spotify or YouTube - Cam is sharing charts throughout the episode.

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Chapters00:00 — Introduction01:00 — Momentum Trading vs Other Trading Styles04:00 — AGL Example: When the Market Gets Repriced09:00 — Gap and Go Data: R Multiples and Continuation12:20 — MFE, Breakeven Stops, and Momentum Fading15:00 — Holding Winners vs Taking Profits Too Early19:55 — Monte Carlo Testing: Why a Few Trades Drive Returns23:25 — Silver, Gold, Tesla, ASML, and Reddit: Cam’s Biggest Trades25:15 — The Super Momentum Screener28:05 — Using AI and Backtesting to Study Trading Rules33:50 — R Multiples vs Percentage-Based Profit Targets39:20 — Rethinking Profit Targets and Stop Rules43:00 — Knowing When Momentum Has Died45:20 — Balancing Win Rate, Drawdowns, and Big Returns47:20 — Responsible AI Use Cases for Traders49:40 — What’s Coming Next: Practical AI for Trading

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