Bear Markets, Botched Executions and Broken Appliances — Bizarro World 382

The free version of Episode 382 of Investing in Bizarro World is now live.

Gerardo and Nick return from the Beaver Creek Precious Metals Summit to confront a market that suddenly feels a lot like it did in July. Gold has corrected roughly 10% from its recent high near $4,600, silver looks even shakier and junior mining equities have been hit hard. Yet the long-term bull market remains intact.

Gold held the crucial $4,000 level but must reclaim $4,175, $4,240 and $4,375 before it can challenge the highs again. Silver could fall toward $54 or $55 before finding its footing, while copper continues to display the strongest price action of the three metals.

The immediate headwinds include rising global bond yields, a Federal Reserve rate hike and a U.S. Dollar Index back above 100. Those forces have helped push the GDXJ down approximately 17% in one month. At the same time, the debt and spending problems driving yields higher remain among the strongest long-term arguments for owning gold.

Uranium remains stubbornly pinned near 89–90 per pound as uranium equities trade well below their 52-week highs. Lithium has pulled back more than 20% from its recent peak, but acquisitions carrying premiums of approximately 50% and 75% suggest larger players are preparing for future supply deficits.

Beaver Creek offered another view of the resource market. Approximately 220–240 companies attended, institutional investors filled the rooms and major mining companies spent the week conducting meetings. Large financings are getting completed, drill rigs remain difficult to secure and assay laboratories are backed up.

Rather than buying entire companies, major producers are increasingly taking strategic positions and funding exploration. Junior miners are also using spinouts to unlock value from overlooked assets. The public market may be focused on short-term weakness, but the industry continues preparing for a much larger metals cycle.

Outside mining, the stock market’s breadth is deteriorating. An equal-weighted S&P 500 portfolio has fallen approximately 6% over the past month and a half, while technology, AI and energy stocks have kept the capitalization-weighted index afloat.

Oil has quietly retreated from approximately $106 per barrel in mid-September to as low as $92. Nick expects strong third-quarter growth and temporarily higher inflation to give way to slower growth and disinflation as the economy moves through the fourth quarter and into early 2027. That shift c