ASML Q3 2026 Earnings: Sold Out Through 2028 & The New WFE Cycle

<p>ASML just reported Q3 2026 earnings, and management delivered a major update: the company cannot fully meet customer demand for the next two years. With net sales hitting €11.66 billion—up 55% year over year—these results reshape the trajectory for the entire wafer fab equipment (WFE) industry.</p><p>In this episode, we break down the quarterly print and what extended capacity constraints mean for semi equipment through 2028:</p><ul><li><p><strong>End-Market Shift:</strong> How memory chipmakers and installed base management offset softer logic spending to drive the top-line surge.</p></li><li><p><strong>Profitability &amp; Cash:</strong> Net income near €5 billion (including ~€500M from ASML’s Mistral AI stake) and the rebound in free cash flow after several lumpy quarters.</p></li><li><p><strong>Q4 2026 Guidance:</strong> The setup for ~52% revenue growth and record gross margins near 57%.</p></li><li><p><strong>Revisiting Our 2028 Call:</strong> Why our earlier thesis on a potential 2028 equipment slowdown looks completely different now that ASML is weighing expansion beyond its planned 30% capacity bump.</p></li><li><p><strong>The Fab Five &amp; Sector Strategy:</strong> What this supply crunch signals for Applied Materials, Lam Research, KLA, and Tokyo Electron following the post-June sell-off—and why macro equipment allocation matters more than single-stock picking at this stage of the AI cycle.</p><p><br></p><p>Timestamps:</p></li></ul><p>0:00 ASML Kicks Off Chip Earnings Season</p><p>1:10 The EUV Moat: Why Lithography Is a Choke Point</p><p>3:00 Sales by End Market: Memory Picks Up the Slack</p><p>4:10 Q3 2026 Revenue: +55% and the Lumpy Sales Cycle</p><p>6:00 Net Income, the Mistral AI Gain &amp; Free Cash Flow</p><p>7:30 Revisiting Our 2028 Slowdown Call</p><p>8:10 Q4 Guide: +52% Growth and Record ~57% Margins</p><p>9:00 Capacity Constrained Through 2028: Why It’s Bullish</p><p>11:10 Fab Five Sell-Off: Is Equipment on Sale?</p><p>12:00 Allocation Over Stock Picking: Our Takeaway</p><ul><li><p><strong>Sponsor:</strong> Try Fiscal.ai, the financial data platform we use every day. Get 15% off any paid plan at <a href="https://fiscal.ai/csi" target="_blank" rel="noopener">https://fiscal.ai/csi</a></p></li><li><p><strong>Join Semiconductor Insider:</strong> Get early access to our complete research, weekly live Q&amp;As, and proprietary equipment tracking tools at <a href="https://chipstockinvestor.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">https://chips