Q3 2026 Multifamily Market Monologue

<p>In this Multifamily Market Monologue, David Moghavem breaks down what the latest move in interest rates means for apartment investors and why the market may be entering a new phase of the cycle.<br />With the 10-year Treasury approaching 5%, optimism around a quick return to lower rates is fading. David discusses how that shift is changing lender behavior, accelerating foreclosures, and forcing owners, lenders, and buyers to accept a higher-for-longer interest rate environment.At the same time, the operating picture is beginning to improve. ApartmentIQ data shows 69 of 83 major metros posting positive net-effective rent growth over the past 90 days, with the Bay Area leading the country and several previously oversupplied Sun Belt markets beginning to show early signs of stabilization.<br />David explains why improving fundamentals do not necessarily mean multifamily values have bottomed, particularly with financing costs remaining elevated. In this environment, simply buying assets for basis and hoping for cap rate compression is no longer enough.The next phase of multifamily will reward investors who can find a differentiated edge. David explores two strategies he believes are becoming increasingly important: affordable housing and tax-abatement structures that align owners with government housing priorities, and operational excellence through better property management, proprietary portfolio data, and AI-driven decision-making.<br />Chapters:<br />00:17 Reflections on September 11th and New Beginnings<br />02:27 The Ten-Year at 5%, What Does this Mean?<br />04:42 The Impact of High Interest Rates<br />07:23 Foreclosures and Market Sentiment<br />10:58 Analyzing Rent Growth Trends<br />16:28 Adapting to a New Reality in Multifamily<br />18:06 The Shift Towards Affordable Housing<br />20:57 Operational Excellence as a Competitive Edge<br />www.dealflowfriday.com<br />IG: @Dealflowfriday<br />X: @Dealflowfriday<br /></p>