102. US Debt Warning, Yen Carry Trade Risk & Is AI Really a Bubble?

Brian Dunhill has stepped out for this episode, so Richard Taylor is joined by Dunhill analyst Kamaljit Somal for an unscripted breakdown of the forces moving global markets. 

First up, the US bond market. Kam explains why rising long-term yields are making policymakers nervous, how higher borrowing costs feed through to mortgages, car loans and government finances, and why the bond market may finally be sounding the alarm over US debt. With federal debt approaching $40 trillion, Richard and Kam dig into the bigger issue: the growing cost of servicing it, which Kam says is now a larger expense for the US government than military spending. 

Then, Japan. The yen has strengthened sharply, raising questions around one of the most important sources of cheap funding in global markets: the carry trade. Kam breaks down how leverage has built up around the yen, why a disorderly unwind could put pressure on the Magnificent Seven and other high-growth stocks, and what a stronger Japanese currency could mean for investors around the world. 

They also look at what this means for cross-border portfolios. Kam explains why Dunhill has been reducing some US dollar exposure, particularly in fixed income, and why matching the safer part of a portfolio to the currency you actually spend can help remove an unnecessary layer of risk. 

Finally, Richard and Kam turn to the US stock market and the constant talk of an AI bubble. Despite investor anxiety, they argue that today’s market looks very different from the dot-com era: the companies driving growth are generating enormous amounts of cash, earnings are broadening beyond the Magnificent Seven, and even some of the software names written off during the so-called “SaaS apocalypse” are beginning to benefit from AI. 

As always: real talk, zero scripts, and a cross-border look at what actually matters beneath another chaotic month in markets. 

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Expat Wealth is supported by Plan First Wealth. Plan First Wealth is a Registered Investment Advisor serving fellow expatriates and immigrants living across the US on matters such as retirement planning, investment management, tax planning and non-US asset management. 

https://planfirstwealth.com/ 

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Expat Wealth is affiliated with Plan First Wealth LLC, an SEC registered investment advisor. The views and opinions expressed in this program are those of the speakers and do not ne