Why the Fed May Have to Hike Far Higher Than Expected | Henry Peabody on the Fed’s Triple Mandate and Uneven Transmission of Monetary Policy

Henry Peabody, senior investment strategist at GMO, joins Monetary Matters to explain why the Fed has an unofficial third mandate: managing how credit flows through an economy that is increasingly outside the banks. With private credit and fixed-rate borrowing loosening the link between Fed policy and the real economy, Henry argues that rate hikes are hitting consumers and weaker borrowers while large corporates and the AI complex keep borrowing almost regardless of cost. That bifurcation, he says, means the Fed may have to take rates higher than anyone expects to cool demand, adding risk to markets. Jack and Henry discuss the opacity of private credit, why the credit cycle is "one of the most dependable things in finance," why recoveries on software loans could be close to zero, and the lessons of BDCs in 2008. Henry also shares how GMO is positioning in fixed income: less duration and less vanilla credit risk, more short-duration structured credit, and a preference for emerging market local debt. They close on the dollar, where long-term rates are headed, and the fiscal reckoning coming for Social Security. Recorded September 17, 2026.

“Triple Mandate” by Henry Peabody: https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/triple-mandate_whitepaper/

Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96

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