The Hidden Tax of Central Bank Reserves

In this episode, Lucas and Luna dissect the often-overlooked cost of holding excess reserves at the Federal Reserve. With the Fed paying interest on reserves (IOR) that has recently fluctuated around 4.5 percent, commercial banks are earning risk-free returns that distort traditional lending behavior. We explore how this dynamic creates a 'shadow spread' between what banks pay depositors and what they earn on government securities, effectively tightening credit conditions without any official rate hike. Using JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs as case studies for their balance sheet management strategies in Q3 2026, we explain why your local bank’s loan officer might be saying no even when the federal funds rate is stable. This is a deep dive into the mechanics of monetary transmission and the unintended consequences of central bank liquidity provision.

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