Israel Votes, Part 4: The Forecast

Ten days before Israel's 27 October 2026 election, Corn, Hilbert and Herman each forecast it a different way. Corn uses a structural model: how stable the blocs are, which lists fell under the threshold, and what happened after 1973. Hilbert averages nine mainstream polls, corrects them for Israel's past polling errors and simulates the threshold races. Herman builds a synthetic electorate of seven voters, from Beit Shemesh to Nazareth, and runs it through the real seat allocation ten thousand times. Then Herman judges the three and makes a forecast: seats, blocs, and who becomes prime minister.

Episode 6073 — myweirdprompts.com/n/6073 (permanent short link: myweirdprompts.com/242240)