Michel Ingenbleek: Staying Intact: The Behavioral Discipline of Long-Term Investing

<p>Find me on Substack!</p><p>Today on Talking Billions, I&#39;m joined by Michel Ingenbleek — an investor and writer whose career took an unusual road here: from leading teams in the Dutch Korps Commandotroepen and Royal Netherlands Marine Corps, to two decades running offshore energy projects and corporate strategy at companies like Subsea 7 and Technip. These days he writes <em>Capital and Character</em>, a weekly Substack on the psychology of long-term investing, and his debut book, <em>Staying Intact</em>, turns two decades of his own investment mistakes into a framework he calls the behavioral margin of safety.</p><p>Episode Sponsor: Fiscal AI is a modern data terminal that gives investors instant access to twenty years of financials, earnings transcripts, and extensive segment and KPI data—use my link for a two-week free trial plus 15% off: <a href="https://fiscal.ai/talkingbillions/" target="_blank" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer">https://fiscal.ai/talkingbillions/</a></p><p>Michel&#39;s path to investing began a hundred meters down, inside a pumped-dry habitat on the seabed, finishing a days-long weld on a 48-inch pipeline and asking himself, &quot;is this it?&quot; The former Dutch commando and Royal Netherlands Marine went on to project and strategy roles at Subsea 7 and Technip, and chose to invest his offshore bonuses himself rather than hand them to a wealth manager. The mistakes that followed became his book, Staying Intact.</p><p>At its heart is the behavioral margin of safety. Graham&#39;s margin tells you the price at which an asset is worth buying; Michel&#39;s tells you the size you can hold without your judgment breaking if the position falls further before you&#39;re proven right. He shares the story of selling ASML and Nvidia in 2022, then realizing his follow-up research was really a search for reassurance: &quot;I get fooled so easily basically by feelings.&quot;</p><p>We trace the recurring ingredient of every bubble, from tulip mania to GameStop: not a lie but a truth, until rising prices get mistaken for evidence. Michel applies that lens to AI without pretending to forecast it. He separates loud, fast narrative risk from quiet, slow economic risk, explains why a deliberate pause can save a position better than more information, and revisits Long-Term Capital Management as a lesson in what models can&#39;t see. We also talk about red-teaming your own ideas, the strength in saying &quot;I don&#39;t know,&quot; why &quot;enough&quot