How to Make Better Decisions Without More Information with David Samuelson and Mary Call Blanusa

Leading the Alliance for Decision Education's work to make decision science part of core curriculum are David Samuelson, the organization's Executive Director, and Mary Call Blanusa, its Director of Public Policy. Samuelson spent his career leading digital transformation at national associations before turning to teaching students and school leaders the skills to navigate uncertainty — the same skills, he says, that make a good sailor in unpredictable water.

Blanusa brings two decades of education policy and philanthropy experience, including co-designing decision-making courses with state systems like the Tennessee Board of Regents. Together they're building the research, courses, and district partnerships that treat decision making as a teachable skill, not an innate trait.

A principal ignored a direct order from central office — and made the right call anyway. This post breaks down the decision-making process that got him there: how to turn gut feelings into percentages, separate good decisions from good outcomes, and keep your judgment sharp as AI takes over more of the thinking for you.

🧲 What You'll Learn How to turn vague words like "maybe" and "highly likely" into percentages your whole team agrees on. Why judging decisions by their outcomes alone will wreck your team's confidence in a good process. The weight-and-rate framework David and Danny used to decide whether to defy a district directive. Why decision-making skills now show up explicitly in 41% of job postings nationally. What "don't give your agency to an agent" means for how you use AI in your building. 🖊️ Breaking Down the Old Rules 👀 Key Insight #1: Why Vague Language Kills Good Decision Making What's broken: Leaders use words like "maybe" and "highly likely" as if they mean the same thing to everyone in the room. The shift: Assign an actual percentage to the word — "highly likely" might be 95% to one person and 80% to another — so the team is agreeing on a number, not a vibe. Impact: A goal like "highly likely to graduate 95% of students" only works as a shared commitment once everyone has agreed on what "highly likely" actually means. 💟 Key Insight #2: How to Separate Decision Quality From Outcomes What's broken: Principals get judged — and judge themselves — on how a decision turned out, not on how it was made. The shift: Evaluate the process (the options you considered, the criteria you weighted, the probabilities you assigned) as a separate question from whether things happe