Luke Gromen: The Bull Market That Loses You Money | #645

Today’s guest is Luke Gromen, founder of the macro research firm Forest for the Trees, or FFTT.

In today's episode, Luke argues that free trade is dead, and the US is pivoting to Hamiltonian economics: tariffs, reshoring, and a neutral reserve asset. He explains why the US Treasury can no longer be the world's reserve asset, why long bonds have become certificates of confiscation, and why gold belongs in every portfolio. To close, Luke explains why AI has become a snake eating its own tail on the government's tax base.

(0:00) Introduction

(2:38) The Stupid Washington Consensus and Hamiltonian Economics

(9:14) Portfolio positioning and real rates in the current regime

(15:19) Sponsor: Upwork

(16:17) Importance of real returns and gold

(21:18) US fiscal challenges and bond market outlook

(27:21) Gold performance, allocation strategies, and diversification

(35:09) Evaluating non-US equity markets and sectors

(40:54) Investing in electricity and industrials

(45:11) Risks, competition, and national security in the AI sector