Is the Bitcoin Bottom Already In? Coldcard, BIP-110 & the 4-Year Cycle

<p>The Rational Root joins me to break down the Coldcard vulnerability, BIP-110, and the potential Bitcoin chain split. We also analyze on-chain momentum, Digital Credit, institutional demand, and whether Bitcoin’s 2026 bear-market bottom may already be in.</p><p><br></p><p>Timestamps:</p><p>0:00 Introduction</p><p>0:24 Coldcard vulnerability overview</p><p>4:46 Coin Days Destroyed and the Coldcard incident</p><p>8:41 Coldcard’s development failures</p><p>11:50 How AI could strengthen Bitcoin security</p><p>13:52 Why Coldcard barely moved Bitcoin’s price</p><p>17:16 The safest approach to self-custody</p><p>20:15 The risks of single-signature hardware wallets</p><p>23:12 BIP-110 and the potential Bitcoin chain split</p><p>23:33 Transaction fees after the Coldcard incident</p><p>25:08 Bitcoin Core, Knots, and OP_RETURN</p><p>28:41 The three ways data enters Bitcoin</p><p>33:00 Could BIP-110 make the UTXO problem worse?</p><p>35:29 Why Bitcoin’s spam problem may be overstated</p><p>37:21 Where Bitcoin is in the four-year cycle</p><p>38:35 Short-term holder momentum and capitulation</p><p>41:44 How short-term holder momentum works</p><p>43:06 Is the Bitcoin bottom already in?</p><p>45:45 Could Bitcoin fall to realized price?</p><p>47:44 Digital Credit and institutional demand</p><p>50:28 Strategy’s cash reserve and preferred stocks</p><p>51:09 Why this bear market may be less severe</p><p>54:20 Bitcoin’s disconnect from stocks</p><p>56:00 AI, macro, and the business cycle</p><p>59:15 The final day of the bear market</p><p>1:01:16 Bitcoin’s antifragility</p><p>1:01:56 Where to follow The Rational Root</p>