Texas Real Estate Note Deal Breakdown: 18% LTV Non-Performing First Lien Case Study

Looking for real-world case studies on non-performing notes with massive equity? Welcome back to The Note Closers Show! In this episode, host Scott Carson breaks down a high-equity, low-LTV non-performing note deal in Conroe, Texas. Scott walks you through the initial evaluation, bidding numbers, foreclosure returns, and the exact exit strategies considered for this $90,000 cash-out refi first lien.

Scott breaks down the math on a 四-bedroom, 3,600 sq. ft. home valued around $500,000 with an unpaid principal balance under $89,000 (roughly 18% LTV). He explains why an 80% UPB bid ($71,100) made mathematical sense, how foreclosure or hard-money refinance options would yield a 33%+ annualized return, and what happens to your yield if a borrower files Chapter 13 bankruptcy or enters a loan modification. Scott also shares why he ultimately lost the deal to a whole-tape buyer and outlines the key lessons every investor should know when bidding on multi-state asset pools.

Key Topics Covered:

Conroe, Texas Asset Profile: A four-bedroom, five-bath, 3,600 sq. ft. property valued near $500,000 with an Unpaid Principal Balance (UPB) of just $88,900 (~18% LTV). Loan Details: 30-year cash-out refi first lien at a 6.625% interest rate with monthly payments under $600, sitting 12 months delinquent. Bidding Strategy at 80% UPB: Offering $71,100 for the note to target a $24,000 gross foreclosure profit, creating an annualized return above 33% within 90 to 120 days. Chapter 13 Bankruptcy Math: Analyzing the conservative downside risk if a borrower files a 5-year repayment plan—yielding an $8,352 annual cash flow (~11.76% ROI). Single Asset vs. Whole Tape Bids: Why seller preference for full-pool buyers led to a whole-tape bid at 85% UPB across 7 states, including slow-foreclosure jurisdictions like New York, Maryland, and Pennsylvania. MLS & Foreclosure Signals: Tracking active listings on HAR/Zillow and recognizing when a pulled listing indicates loan modifications, forbearance agreements, or impending auction dates.

Connect & Learn More:

Book a 1-on-1 Strategy Call with Scott: talkwithscottcarson.comRegister for the Virtual Note Buying Workshop: notebuyingfordummies.comJoin the WCN Membership Community: noteumbrella.com

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