NFL Week 4 Recap: Rams Statement Win, Patriots Upset Bills & DVOA Top 12

Week 4 gave us statement wins, close calls, major injuries and another shakeup in the NFL hierarchy.

Aaron Schatz and Mike Tanier recap the biggest games from the weekend using DVOA, Post-Game Win Expectancy, playoff simulations and matchup data to separate what actually happened from what the final scores might suggest.

🏈 Rams 24, Eagles 20

Los Angeles controlled the efficiency battle despite the close score, finishing with a 96% PGWE. The Eagles went 0-for-12 on third down, averaged just 3.0 yards per play, and lost Saquon Barkley and Quinyon Mitchell during the game. The result also reshapes the NFC East picture, with Dallas now leading FTN’s division simulations.

🏈 Patriots 29, Bills 26

Was this the upset everyone saw coming? Buffalo blitzed Drake Maye 21 times but recorded only one sack, while New England finished with a 60% PGWE. The Bills still lead the AFC East in most simulations and remain the conference favorite.

🏈 Chiefs 30, Raiders 27

Las Vegas kept settling for field goals and paid for it late. A Dareke Young kick-return fumble helped Kansas City create separation, while Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer both produced strong receiving lines. Despite the win, the Chiefs finished with only a 62% PGWE.

🏈 49ers 24, Broncos 14

San Francisco remains on top of the DVOA rankings and still has not allowed a sack through four games. The 49ers’ offense exploded in the fourth quarter after Denver lost Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss, while questions continue about Denver’s slow starts offensively.

📊 Reverse PGWE Games

Aaron and Mike examine the games where the result didn’t match the underlying performance, including Packers-Buccaneers, plus three near 50/50 outcomes: Browns-Steelers, Giants-Cardinals and Cowboys-Texans.