The macroeconomics of shipping and wine w/ Basile Aloy, Avignonesi

A 7th generation shipper and 2nd generation winegrower, Basile Aloy of Avignonesi in Tuscany, has a unique perspective on the geopolitical and macroeconomic events happening today and how they impact the cost of wine. Oil prices, war, tariffs, and climate change all come into play in this wide ranging conversation that showcases how much some of these macro events impact the world of wine.

Detailed Show Notes:

Basile’s background: Chairman of Avignonesi, wine distribution in Italy & US, 7th generation shipping family, CEO of shipping businesses EBE & Victrix, studied winemaking in Bordeaux

Runs a fleet of dry bulk carriers in shipping, does not ship wine

Iran war has increased the cost of cargo, a 40 ft container for wine went from $1,600 to $2,700 (~70% increase), however, per bottle (~18k bottles/container) that goes from $0.09 to $0.15/bottle (not a huge impact)

Many ships have been re-routed around South Africa instead of crossing the Suez Canal, they don’t send ships through Hormuz, which has caused congestion for trucking in the Middle EastThere has been less fuel on the market, causing some wait times to re-fuel shipsTariffs have had a bigger impact on wine costs, earlier in 2026, Italy paid 15% tariffs on wine to the US, mid-2026 it is now down to 10%, which has outweighed the freight increaseFood costs are rising, ~30% of global fertilizers come from the Middle East, diesel costs are up; food price increases are comingDomesticating production can be challenging, but it is happening in some places, both Canada and China are leaning in; Avignonesi saw China as a big growth market, but has fallen dramatically, partially due to high quality wines made in China

Both shipping and wine are very capital intensive, but ships can be purchased on the secondary market, where prices swing dramatically (from $25M to $75M in 5 years); wine cycles are much longer, which can create longer downturns like we’re experiencing today

Avignonesi overview

170 ha vineyardsFocused on Sangiovese and some international varieties, as well as Vin Santo~50-60% exportedItalian market is semi-export, as tourists drive a decent amount of consumption (e.g. - during Covid, Italian sales were down ~20-30%)Basile’s family took over Avignonesi in 2009, have a vision to be more transparent with customers, healthy (move towards organic and biodynamic viticulture), and a desire to take care of the environment, broadly speaking (become a B Corp, provide English classes to the communit