Why Markets May Be Pricing in Too Many Fed Rate Hikes

Markets may be pricing in more tightening by the Federal Reserve than is warranted due to a divergence playing out in the economy, according to Goldman Sachs Vice Chairman and former Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan. In the Goldman Sachs Exchanges podcast, Kaplan notes that while artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure and defense spending are continuing to boom, interest-rate sensitive parts of the economy, such as housing and autos, are already straining under higher rates. Taken together, these crosscurrents are creating a more muted response from the Fed.  

Key takeaways:

The Fed may still hike, but not much: Kaplan expects the Fed to raise rates one more time to bring rates to roughly 4%–4.25%, then pause to reassess. The markets, however, are pricing in more hikes, which Kaplans attributes to a risk premium from investors that may be related to uncertainties over oil prices and how Fed Chairman Warsh would adjust policy in reaction to economic data. 

The neutral rate still matters: Kaplan says this policy rate, while not the “be all,” is still relevant. Kaplan thinks another rate hike would probably push Fed policy above the neutral rate and be “slightly restrictive” for the economy.

A shock without a playbook: Kaplan describes an economy with a "low fire, low hire" labor market where tariffs, immigration-driven labor constraints, and an oil shock are coinciding with a historic capex boom—a supply-side setup with no textbook precedent. That shock is forcing the Fed to focus on containing the "bleed" of inflation into other goods, he says.  

Date of recording: September 22, 2026

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