Retail Sales Outlook: Why Shoppers Keep Spending | NRF Chief Economist Mark Matthews

Retail sales are running 5.3% ahead of last year, beating NRF's 4.4% forecast. Michael Bull, CCIM asks NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews why shoppers keep spending.

Consumer sentiment sits near the lowest readings on record, yet shoppers keep buying. Mark Mathews, Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research at the National Retail Federation, explains why most of the 2026 growth is real rather than inflation: goods inflation is running about 0.8%, and a dollar spent on a durable good 30 years ago costs about 79 cents today.

Mark breaks down the K-shaped consumer (the top 20% of households drive about 60% of spending), how $60 billion in extra tax refunds offset higher gas prices through August, and why retailers who win on price are winning now. He also covers diesel and tariff costs, blended e-commerce and physical stores, AI shopping assistants, TikTok and influencer-driven sales, and his outlook for holiday spending.

For owners and investors in retail real estate and net lease retail, this is a clear read on the consumer behind the rent checks.

In this episode:00:00 Retail Real Estate: Are Retailers Really Doing Well?01:41 Retail Sales Up 5.3% vs. NRF's 4.4% Forecast03:44 Who's Winning: Retailers That Own Low Prices04:55 Dollar Stores and the K-Shaped Consumer06:03 Gas Prices, the Top 20% and $60B in Tax Refunds08:30 Consumer Confidence Near Record Lows10:07 Diesel, Tariffs and Who Absorbs the Cost11:30 E-Commerce, Blended Commerce and Physical Stores13:07 Why Shoppers Still Want to Touch the Product13:51 AI in Retail: Big Investment, Unclear Payoff15:51 Showing Up in AI Search Results18:11 Retail Sales Outlook and Holiday Spending19:28 Advice for Retailers and Retail Property Owners21:14 TikTok, Influencers and the Customer as Emperor22:24 Wrap-Up

Connect with Mark Mathews:https://www.linkedin.com/in/mark-mathews-cbe-4522913/National Retail Federation Website: https://nrf.com

Connect with Michael Bull & The Show:Michael Bull, CCIMBull Realty, Inchttps://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/

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