ICSC - Tight Retail Supply & Strong Holiday Sales

Holiday retail sales are forecast to grow 4.3% to 4.9% while retail space stays scarce. ICSC CEO Tom McGee joins Michael Bull, CCIM to explain why. Retail sales have more than doubled since the global financial crisis, yet very little new retail space has been built. The result is historically high occupancy across regional malls, open-air centers, and standalone retail, with retailers competing for well-positioned space. Tom breaks down ICSC's fourth quarter forecast of $1.7 trillion in retail sales, why the top 10% of earners account for 50% of all consumer spending, and why the other 90% are watching prices closely. The conversation covers the formats with the most momentum (grocery-anchored and suburban open-air centers), what happens to dark drugstores, and findings from ICSC's Shopping in the Age of AI report with McKinsey on convenience-oriented and discovery-oriented stores. Tom explains why ICSC events are built for dealmaking, including 4,000 participants at ICSC+PROPTECH in Las Vegas, and Michael shares how an AI-drafted markup of a listing agreement nearly derailed an $11 million listing. In this episode:00:00  Retail Outlook: Gas Prices, Tariffs, and Inflation01:10  Retail Sales Growth and a Strong Job Market03:30  Holiday Forecast: $1.7 Trillion, 4.3% to 4.9% Growth05:18  Top 10% of Earners Drive 50% of Consumer Spending06:20  Stock Market, Home Equity, and the Wealth Effect06:59  Gas Prices and Discretionary Spending07:50  Shopping in the Age of AI: Convenience vs. Discovery Stores10:53  ICSC Southeast: Dealmaking in Atlanta12:46  ICSC Las Vegas and 4,000 at ICSC+PROPTECH14:32  Who's Expanding: Discount, Grocery-Anchored, Open-Air16:20  Dark Drugstores: Why Vacant Retail Gets Snapped Up18:10  Retail Tips: Merchandising, Pricing, Customer Service20:09  Chick-fil-A Outparcels and Retail as Social Space21:49  AI-Lawyered Leases and Listing Agreements24:12  Final Takeaway: A Resilient Consumer and Warning Signs Connect with Tom McGee:https://www.linkedin.com/in/tommcgee2/ICSC Website: https://www.icsc.com Connect with Michael Bull & The Show:Michael Bull, CCIMBull Realty, Inchttps://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/ For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com. America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors. TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.co