Priced Guidance: Can Language Models Generate Future Research Ideas?

<p>This paper introduces Priced Guidance, a novel evaluation framework that assesses language models on their ability to generate novel and future research ideas. Rather than using expensive repeated sampling or verbatim text compression, this methodology measures the compression cost—the exact number of additional bits required for an informed guide to steer a generator model toward a target research concept. By leveraging a structured sequence of multiple-choice questions and probabilistic bids, the framework establishes a mathematical lower bound connecting low compression costs to a high probability of unguided idea generation. Empirical evaluations across multiple frontier language models and deep learning papers demonstrate that generating the essence of an idea requires significantly fewer bits than verbatim text compression, highlighting distinct performance tiers among models and revealing potential improvements through ensembling and post-training.</p><p></p>