Everyone Waiting For A Bitcoin Dip Is About To Get Left Behind | James Check

<p>Mentor Sessions Episode 100: James Check breaks down Bitcoin market cycles, on-chain data, the bull market transition, and his end-of-year $100K price target for 2026</p><p><br></p><p>Bitcoin just flipped from bear to bull and the on-chain data proves it: more than half of all invested wealth is now in profit, up from just 8% at the $58K lows. James Check returns to break down exactly what changed and where the cycle goes next.</p><p><br></p><p>You&#39;ll learn why James called the bottom back in July and what the run from the low $60s to $86K revealed on-chain. You&#39;ll see his four-phase market cycle model, how short-term and long-term holder cost basis acts as resistance, and why 90% of ETF buyers were underwater before $8 billion in outflows hit the bottom. You&#39;ll also hear his honest end-of-year outlook, his left/mid/right curve scenarios, and why he believes dips will most likely be bought from here.</p><p><br></p><p>This is a measured, data-first conversation for anyone navigating the transition out of a bear market without getting chopped up.</p><p><br></p><p>⏱️ Timestamps:</p><p>0:00 - Intro</p><p>0:42 - Confirming the Bull Market</p><p>1:24 - On-Chain Data Reveals Human Emotion</p><p>1:36 - Price Pain Versus Time Pain Capitulation</p><p>2:13 - Macro Trends Begin on One-Second Charts</p><p>3:13 - Two Legs Up and Short Squeezes</p><p>4:27 - Wealth in Profit Jumps From 8% to 55%</p><p>5:27 - Bear Market PTSD and Transition</p><p>6:25 - Will Old Buyers Sell at Break-Even?</p><p>7:22 - Who Bought Bitcoin at $64K?</p><p>8:04 - Four Seasons of Holder Behavior</p><p>9:39 - Volume Rising Across Exchanges</p><p>10:24 - Anything Missed in the Bear Market?</p><p>11:42 - ETFs Bought Tops and Sold Bottoms</p><p>13:07 - How 20% of Coins Drive 55% Drawdowns</p><p>15:11 - What a True Catastrophic Event Looks Like</p><p>15:48 - $100K Resistance and Silent IPO</p><p>18:09 - Why the Next All-Time High Feels Special</p><p>19:46 - Low-Fee ETF Flows Gaining Traction</p><p>21:19 - Why Companies Avoid Bitcoin on Balance Sheets</p><p>23:01 - Housing Markets Push Rotation Into Bitcoin</p><p>24:00 - Bitcoin Is Not Set and Forget</p><p>28:18 - Personal Signals Confirming the Bottom</p><p>30:40 - Testing Fear Versus Greed Titles</p><p>31:04 - Why Brains Are Wired to Lose Money</p><p>32:57 - Is the DCA Strategy Still Active?</p><p>33:46 - Maxing Purchases at $60K</p><p>40:40 - Bull Market Lines of Defense</p><p>44:34 - Tracking the Hot Ball of Money</p><p>53:47 - AI C