STZ Stock: More Beer Shipped, But Who Is Buying? — Q2 FY2027

Constellation Brands (STZ) Q2 FY2027 — Reference price $115.91 is the October 6 pre-release quote at 3:59:59 p.m. Eastern; no completed post-print session is asserted.

Beer shipments rose 5.5% while depletions fell 0.6%. Comparable profit dollars were flat, even as a smaller share count lifted EPS. We test whether the sales rebound can become a durable demand recovery.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$130.00 vs ~$115.91 today.

KEY METRICS:

- Net sales $2,633M, up 6.1% computed YoY

- Comparable EPS $3.74; comparable income $637.3M versus $637.8M

- Beer shipments +5.5%; depletions -0.6%

- Beer operating margin 39.0%, down 160 bps

- H1 FCF $1,124.5M; FY27 guide $1.6–$1.7B

What to watch: Positive beer depletions, shipment/depletion gap below 3 points, beer margin at least 38%, and FY27 FCF floor $1.6B maintained; price-only margin-of-safety threshold $104.

Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/stz-q2-fy2027

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha