Is the AI Bull Market Moving Past Semiconductors?

<p>Neoclouds like Nebius, CoreWeave, and IREN are showing the signs of a micro bubble, and we trimmed our Nebius position. This episode covers where we think AI capital goes next.</p><p><br></p><p>Jensen Huang frames the AI economy as a five-layer cake: energy, chips, infrastructure, models, and applications. So far the cake has been inverted. Most capital has gone to the bottom layers (energy, semiconductor manufacturing, and data center build-out), even though those sectors are a small share of global GDP. After the software selloff earlier in 2026, there are early signs that the top layer, meaning applications, devices, and services, is starting to drive real AI demand.</p><p><br></p><p>We revisit our bull market framework: what drives secular growth, what signals slowing productivity from capital investment, and how micro bubbles form inside a healthy bull market. That includes why neoclouds, cybersecurity, and parts of the semiconductor rally got ahead of themselves, and what Allbirds and GoPro pivoting to AI says about where we are in the cycle.</p><p><br></p><p>We also walk through the software supply chain hierarchy, including internet infrastructure built for AI agents and inference traffic, and explain why our recent investments have leaned toward end markets like video games. The semiconductor cycle is still the foundation. The question is where the next dollar of AI capital earns its best return.</p><p><br></p><p>Chapters</p><p>0:00 Nvidia&#39;s five-layer cake: why the AI trade is broadening</p><p>0:50 The inverted pyramid: why capital flowed to the bottom layers</p><p>1:45 What drives a bull market, and what ends one</p><p>2:30 Micro bubbles: overheated pockets inside a healthy bull market</p><p>2:50 Neoclouds overheating: why we trimmed Nebius</p><p>3:15 Allbirds and GoPro pivot to AI: a late-cycle signal</p><p>3:40 Cybersecurity and semis: what we trimmed and what we held</p><p>4:10 The software supply chain hierarchy</p><p>4:50 Where capital goes next: the tertiary layer and video games</p><p><br></p><p>Semiconductor Insider covers the full process behind names like these: all our research, weekly live Q&amp;A, and a growing set of tools. https://www.chipstockinvestor.com</p><p><br></p><p>Why Chip Stock Investor is becoming a software business: https://chipstockinvestor.com/why-chip-stock-investor-is-becoming-a-software-business/</p><p><br></p><p>All our socials: https://linktr.ee/chipstockinvestor</p><p><br></p><p>If this was useful, foll