2485: Economic Forecast and Labor Market Dynamics with Eric Basmajian

Economist Eric Basmajian joins Jason to analyze current economic trends, focusing specifically on the housing market, inflation, and recession risks. He explains that although homebuilder profit margins have compressed and residential construction has slowed, broader macroeconomic indicators—such as rising AI capital spending and a cyclical upturn in manufacturing employment—have kept recession probability remarkably low. Basmajian also addresses the unique dynamics of the modern labor market, noting that while layoffs remain historically rare due to labor shortages, finding new employment has become exceptionally challenging, particularly for younger demographics. Finally, they discuss the long-term productivity impacts of artificial intelligence, suggesting that while the technology will inevitably displace certain workers, the market will eventually reabsorb that labor into areas of new demand.

Key Takeaways:

0:00 Bullish, bearish or neutral on the housing market

4:52 Home builders profit margins

13:58 Oh the irony

15:23 KB Homes profit margins

19:38 Cyclical and non-cyclical payrolls

24:13 Tech companies trading with each other

27:44 Ai and unemployment

38:36 Mortgage delinquency rate

41:24 What Eric does

43:18 Do nothing for long periods of time