Real Rates, Repriced Credit and the Case for a Short Fed Cycle

The Fed has turned hawkish, and the market is now pricing several more hikes. Our fixed income team isn't convinced. Core U.S. inflation is still drifting lower, most of this year's yield move has come from real rates rather than inflation expectations, and the disinflation case remains intact — all of which argues for a shorter path than consensus expects.

On this episode of Disruptive Forces, host Anu Rajakumar sits down with Ashok Bhatia, Neuberger's Chief Investment Officer and Global Head of Fixed Income, to unpack the latest on global monetary policy, and where value sits now across the bond market.

Together, they discuss:

Why the bond move has been about real yields, not inflation — and where the danger zone begins Why returns have held up better than the yield move suggests Why the team expects a shorter hiking cycle than the market is pricing Why global central banks have more in common than divergence Where the team is finding value: hyperscaler credit, BB high yield, floating rate, European financials, hard currency EM This communication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. Information is obtained from sources deemed reliable, but there is no representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or reliability. This communication is not directed at any investor or category of investors and should not be regarded as investment advice or a suggestion to engage in or refrain from any investment-related course of action. Neuberger is not providing this material in a fiduciary capacity and has a financial interest in the sale of its products and services. Investment decisions should be made based on an investor's individual objectives and circumstances and in consultation with his or her advisors. All information is current as of the date of this material and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Neuberger products and services may not be available in all jurisdictions or to all client types. This material is not intended as a formal research report and should not be relied upon as a basis for making an investment decision. The firm, its employees and advisory accounts may hold positions of any companies discussed. This material may include estimates, outlooks, projections and other "forward-looking statements." Due