Risks and benefits with Professor Fenton

Relative risk versus absolute risk with Professor Norman Fenton, Mathematician, Professor of Risk Information ManagementUploaded 12-12-22Professor Fenton, YouTube channelhttp://youtube.com/@normanfenton81And Sub stackhttps://wherearethenumbers.substack.com/normanfenton.comLink to video on Norman's channelhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Va9aE98cFCADownload the slides used in this videohttps://d7694293-ffb8-4ed0-a014-3581d49070e4.usrfiles.com/ugd/d76942_9aec73e0e123495dba17f070437aadc8.pdf NorWhat is risk information management?Thinking about risk, what do we mean by absolute risk and relative riskSounds a bit like the level of risk can be presented in a way that gives a particular impression of a greater or a lessor risk or benefit?Are there occasions when a vested interest might want to give an impression of an increased benefit, or reduced risk from an intervention?How could choosing RRR versus ARR influence the impression given for adverse reactions is medical journals?ConverselyAre there occasions when a vested interest might want to give an impression of a decreased risk from an intervention?So will RRR always be higher than ARR?Why can the RRR vary between populations and vary over time?So using one of the two measures to estimate the risk/benefit ratio would lead to different conclusions?How could risk / benefit reporting be optimised in the medical literature?Do you think the editors of prestigious international journals are aware of the differences between RRR and ARR?In the case of this paper from the Journal of Expert Reviews of VaccinesEfficacy and effectiveness of covid-19 vaccine - absolute vs. relative risk reductionhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9115787/The original phase three data gave an efficacy for Pfizer vaccine, at preventing infection with SARS-CoV-2 of 95%, but it turns out the ARR was 0.84%Why are these figures so different?So is it fair to say that the ‘real world translation’ of the ARR of the Pfizer vaccine over 5 to 6 months of use increased to 3.7%?What do we mean by number needed to treat? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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