The 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics

What does this year’s economics Nobel have to do with your savings account or your next big purchase? We unpack Robert Hall and Michael Woodford’s contributions to understanding how expectations shape spending and economic policy. Along the way, we discuss consumption smoothing, why central banks explain their plans, and whether people really think as far ahead as economic models suggest. We also look at what prediction markets can tell us about Nobel favorites and why a quieter, more stable economy can be an achievement that’s easy to overlook.

In this episode, we talk about:

* What prediction markets did, and didn’t, tell us about the Nobel winners.

* Why expected lifetime income matters for spending today.

* How central banks use communication to influence expectations.

* Whether everyday financial decisions match economists’ models.

* Why better tools for stabilizing the economy matter beyond academia.

If you liked this conversation, you might also enjoy

This Week’s Drinks 🍻

Jadrian grabbed a Richmond Lager from Hardywood Park Craft Brewery after a hectic day and had already started pouring before we hit record. Matt went seasonal with Saranac’s Festival Pils from its Oktoberfest variety pack, a departure from his usual IPA. We also caught up on fall break activities and upcoming presentations. Between everything going on, a little time off (and a good beer) was certainly welcome.

Name That Stat 📊

We initially skipped the guessing game, but we realized partway through the episode would be a good chance to talk about citations for our laureates. Each of them has garnered more than 70,000 citations for their work over their careers: