The Energy Trade Isn’t Over, It’s Changing: What to Buy Now

The energy trade has already delivered big gains—but David Szybunka says the cycle is far from over. The opportunity is simply changing.

David Szybunka, Senior Portfolio Manager & Managing Director of the Energy Team at Canoe Financial, joins Amber Kanwar to explain why he believes energy has entered the “optimism” stage of a much longer cycle. After large-cap oil producers led the rally, Szybunka is becoming more selective, finding better value in natural gas, mid-cap producers and oilfield services. He argues investors are too focused on today’s oil price and not enough on the structural forces reshaping the sector—from geopolitical risk and energy security to surging power demand from AI.

Szybunka also sees the ingredients for another wave of M&A. Canadian energy companies are generating significantly more cash, debt has fallen and valuations are increasingly diverging—creating opportunities for companies with stronger balance sheets to go shopping. He explains why owning long-life resources could become increasingly valuable as capital returns to the sector.

In the Mailbag, Szybunka weighs in on the outlook for Canadian natural gas and potential M&A opportunities, including Birchcliff Energy (BIR.TO), Advantage Energy (AAV.TO) and Kelt Exploration (KEL.TO). He also tackles West White Rose and what it could mean for Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO) and Suncor Energy (SU.TO), the Tamarack Valley Energy (TVE.TO)–Headwater Exploration (HWX.TO) merger and its Tributary Exploration spinout, Abaxx Technologies (ABXX.NE) following its dramatic selloff, and the outlook for oilfield services.

In Pro Picks, we first revisit Szybunka’s picks from his last appearance—and several were big winners. CES Energy Solutions (CEU.TO) gained 65%, Tamarack Valley Energy (TVE.TO) rose 84% and Headwater Exploration (HWX.TO) climbed 60%, while PrairieSky Royalty (PSK.TO) gained 30%. Tourmaline Oil (TOU.TO), however, returned just 4%—and Szybunka is bringing it back as a pick. He explains why he thinks North American natural gas resources are mispriced, why Tourmaline could be vulnerable to a bid, and why he also likes Athabasca Oil (ATH.TO) and SLB (SLB) as the energy cycle evolves.

Timestamps

00:00 Trailer

02:30 Intro

03:40 David Szybunka returns

04:26 Geopolitics, AI, and the energy demand outlook

06:34 Is energy entering an optimism wave?

09:54 Capital returning to Canadian energy