“How much should we worry about the pneumonic plague lableak in Siberia?” by Drew Spartz

<p> Epistemic status: I wrote this up hoping people can poke holes in it because I am quite worried.</p><p><strong> Here's what we've heard so far:</strong></p><ul> <li value="1">Local media is reporting that an employee of a BSL-3 lab in Irkutsk, Russia, died of pneumonic plague on Oct 1st. </li><li value="2">The initial quarantine covered 200 people who were in contact with the employee before she died.</li><li value="3">The FSB (Russian FBI) was seen assisting in the quarantine, which means it was not voluntary.</li><li value="4">Soviet-era whistleblowers like Ken Alibek claim Irkutsk was a major bioweapon development facility. <br> </li></ul><p><strong> As of Oct 4th:</strong></p><ul> <li value="1">The quarantine has expanded to 5 hospitals in the area. </li><li value="2">The Russian government has switched to denial/coverup. Local news sources have deleted mentions of "pneumonic plague." </li></ul><ul> <li value="1">Local universities and schools have canceled some classes and extended mask mandates.</li><li value="2">On the lab's website, they mention gain-of-function research for making bacteria more virulent. </li><li value="3">The White House is monitoring the suspected outbreak.</li></ul><p><strong> Why this might be a big deal</strong></p><ul> <li value="1">Regular pneumonic plague is maybe not that hard to deal with (?) but if it is a bioweapon that was leaked, it could be significantly more virulent than, say [...]</li></ul></br></li></ul> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(00:18) Here's what we've heard so far:</p><p>(00:52) As of Oct 4th:</p><p>(02:06) Why this might be a big deal</p><p>(03:29) Why this might not be a big deal</p> <p>---</p>

<p><b>First published:</b><br/>

October 5th, 2026 </p>

<p><b>Source:</b><br/>

<a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TYfpTRxGH9frTymwN/how-much-should-we-worry-about-the-pneumonic-plague-lableak?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TYfpTRxGH9frTymwN/how-much-should-we-worry-about-the-pneumonic-plague-lableak</a> </p>

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<p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=lesswrong&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>

<p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the