#MWIECourse: Step 1. Research Risk Separately From Return

The moment you get excited about an investment, your brain stops asking if it's a good idea and starts actively collecting reasons why it is.

In this lesson, twice-voted #1 financial analyst Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA, reveals why even seasoned economists and smart professionals fall victim to convincing bull cases while completely ignoring looming dangers.

Reducing risk isn't about finding a magic trick to be right 100% of the time—it's about separating your return case from an independent downside risk evaluation so that excitement doesn't cloud your judgment.

Why You Need to Listen to This Lesson NOW

The Iraqi Market Trap: Discover how a serious economist with IMF and international banking experience lost half his money in Iraq because he focused entirely on the upside bull case.The "Grumpy Person" Strategy: Learn how major institutions like DBS assign someone to deliberately tear down proposals, and how you can apply this exact technique to your own deals.Stop Relying on Biased Sources: Learn why trusting seller-provided reports, unverified lawyer summaries, or friendly endorsements without independent verification is a massive red flag.Separate Your Work: Master the two-part process of building the return case first, stepping away, and returning with a completely different mindset to find reasons to walk away.

Key Takeaway

"Build the case for why an investment could work, then step away, come back with a different mindset, and actively search for the reasons you should walk away."

— Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA

Episodes Mentioned:

Ep595: Taimur Baig – Don’t Let the Upsides Distract You From the DownsidesEp12: Stuart Leckie – The Cost of Friendship: How Your Friends Impact Your Investment DecisionEp585: Ted Leverette – Buy Businesses That Have Fixable ProblemsEp661: Michelle Leder – Read the 10-K Before You Buy That StockEp736: William Bernstein – Never Invest Based on the Headlines

P.S. Download Your Free 1-Page Risk Checklist

Don't evaluate your next deal on memory alone. Click the link below to download the 1-Page Risk Checklist. Print it out, keep it on your desk, and run all 5 steps before putting any money on the line!