Australia's Property Market Just FLIPPED | Should You Buy Now or Wait?

Every capital city fell last week, except one submarket. Melbourne units are the only market in the country Cotalit y has showing growth, and Lachlan Delahunty explains exactly why, plus a real portfolio breakdown showing what to sell and what to buy in this environment.

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For property owners, the danger isn't the fall itself. It's the cash buffer. Holding less than a 5% buffer puts you on a knife's edge the moment financial stress hits, because that's when banks start looking to reclaim properties. Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty argue that waiting 12 to 18 months in a downturn is the worst move available,  buyer pools thin out and price haircuts of 30 to 40% become the norm, not the exception.

For anyone doing property investment in Australia, this is the numbers-first conversation most investors avoid right up until the bank forces it. We go city by city across the Australian property market: why Melbourne is the only capital improving on the four-week rolling average, what's dragging Brisbane, Sydney, Adelaide and Perth lower, why [Melbourne units] keep beating houses on the replacement cost argument, and how the shift away from auctions is changing how vendors negotiate in a soft market. Plus the difference between wholesale and retail unit purchases, how a 5.5%+ yield can turn a negatively geared property portfolio into one that pays for itself in the current interest rates environment, and what a pre-Christmas rate rise would do to prices into 2027.

What we cover in this Episode:

✅ Know your numbers before the market makes you: debt, true equity, debt-to-income and cash-to-debt

✅ Why a 2% cash buffer puts you one rate rise away from a forced sale, and the 10% floor that protects you

✅ Which regional assets go first, and what happens when investor demand leaves Townsville and Gladstone

✅ The FOMO-stage exit rule: why holding too long costs 30–40%, not 10–15%

✅ Selling with a tenant vs vacant, and which buyer pool you're actually pitching

✅ Commercial at 5.5%+ vs high-yield residential: which fits a cash-flow-negative portfolio