#413 Chris Whalen: Bonds, Gold, Energy, & the Coming Food Shock

<p>Chris Whalen joins Julia La Roche to break down a turbulent week in markets, as the 30-year Treasury hits its highest yield since 2004 and the 10-year breaks 5%. Chris argues that long rates have structurally reset, driven by Washington&#39;s credibility problem and the deficit rather than by the Fed, and he says 7%+ mortgage rates are the new normal as the housing industry heads into consolidation. He makes the case that the world is moving back toward a pre-WWI-style system with gold at its foundation, and explains why he&#39;s still long gold and silver despite short-term swings. Drawing on his conversation with John Dizard, Chris explains how damaged Persian Gulf refining capacity is squeezing diesel and sulfur supplies, sending fertilizer prices up eightfold and setting up a food price shock next year. He warns that double-digit inflation is already &quot;baked into the cake,&quot; and predicts demand destruction could force the Fed to cut rates by 2027. In viewer questions, Chris covers trimming his Annaly position to buy energy stocks, means-testing Social Security, where housing prices are falling, and the risks private credit poses to life insurance and long-term care policies.</p><p><br></p><p>Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/</p><p><br></p><p>Links:    </p><p>The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  </p><p>Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    </p><p>https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X</p><p><br></p><p>Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst <a href="https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing" target="_blank" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer">https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing</a></p><p><a href="https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing" target="_blank" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer">⁠</a></p><p>Timestamps:</p><p>0:00 – Preview</p><p>0:28 – Welcome to The Wrap</p><p>1:06 – 30-year yield hits 2004 high, 10-year breaks 5%</p><p>2:18 – 7%+ mortgage rates: the new normal</p><p>3:16 – What higher rates mean for housing and the mortgage industry</p><p>4:24 – Fed hike and whether Warsh has lost the long end</p><p>5:48 – Inflated and the University Club talk</p><p>6:34 – Gold and the return to a pre-WWI monetary system</p><p>7:40 – Sponsor: Monetary Metals</p><p>8:55 – Why rising yields haven&#39;t broken the gold th