#419 Chris Whalen: Mortgage Funeral, No Bond Rally & the Deficit Washington Won’t Talk About

<p>In this week&#39;s episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris joins Julia La Roche to break down why affordability, the economy and the Iran war have put Republicans on the defensive, and why a Democratic Congress could mean two years of investigations and a tougher regulatory climate for markets. Ahead of the Mortgage Bankers Association annual in Chicago, Chris says the mortgage business is facing a “funeral,” with volumes and profits down, headcount still bloated from COVID, and plenty of firms quietly for sale. He explains why inflation and soaring construction costs are keeping home prices supported despite 7%+ mortgage rates, and why he’s pushing back on Jim Bianco’s bullish bond call. In Chris’s view, the federal deficit nobody in Washington or at the Fed wants to discuss is the biggest force behind higher long-term yields. He also covers the narrow, AI-driven stock market, stalled bank stocks, and viewer questions on capital gains taxes, home prices and whether energy stocks still make sense if the Iran war ends.</p><p><br></p><p>Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/</p><p><br></p><p>Links:    </p><p>The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  </p><p>Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    </p><p>https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X</p><p><br></p><p>Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst <a href="https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing" target="_blank">https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing</a></p><p><a href="https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing" target="_blank">⁠</a></p><p>Timestamps:</p><p>00:00 – Intro</p><p>00:49 – Midterms less than a month out: how Trump has hurt GOP chances</p><p>03:11 – Affordability is still the No. 1 issue</p><p>04:33 – MBA Annual in Chicago: firms quietly up for sale</p><p>07:35 – How much downside is left in housing if rates hold?</p><p>09:06 – Replacement cost vs. market value, and why builders are pulling back</p><p>10:30 – Housing outlook: still a seller’s market</p><p>11:59 – Why Chris disagrees with Jim Bianco’s bullish bond call</p><p>14:01 – What’s really pushing the 10-year higher: the Treasury buyback misstep</p><p>15:42 – Why the Fed won’t talk about the deficit</p><p>18:33 – Are we headed for a debt reset or “Jubilee”?</p><p>19:40 – Record S&amp;P highs vs. AI bubble fea