This Happened Twice in 100 Years... Both Times, Stocks Fell 49%

Peter Schiff on why 86% of the S&P is already in a bear market, the 1973 and 2000 parallels, 5% Treasury yields, and new IRS emails on his bank.

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Market breadth has only been this bad twice in 100 years, and both times the S&P 500 fell nearly 50%.

Peter Schiff opens with the relentless rise in long-term yields: the 10-year Treasury closed at 5.16%, the 30-year at 5.49%, and the five-year at 5.00%, while stocks shrug it off. Mortgages sit above 7% only because the Trump administration ordered Fannie and Freddie to buy, and Peter expects 8% regardless. Bond yields rose even as oil fell from $100 to $92, showing the bond market has decoupled from the Fed narrative. The S&P is 0.7% from a record, but the average stock is 19% below its high, 60% of stocks are in bear territory, and new lows outpaced new highs three to one. Peter compares this to January 1973 and early 2000, the only two precedents, both followed by roughly 49% declines. He also covers the Michigan sentiment drop to 48.1 and the hoarding psychology behind it, Bill Ackman's call to raise the inflation target, why rising yields are bullish for gold, and the Trump-Xi meeting that produced no commitments. The second half returns to Euro Pacific Bank: newly unredacted IRS emails reveal an MOU with OCIF and no answer when the IRS-CI chief asked what the bank did wrong, while the receiver has repaid 78 of roughly 3,500 customers in four years and paid himself over $850,000.

Chapters:

00:00 Breadth Crash Warning

00:59 Bond Yields Surge

04:40 Global Rates and Mortgages

07:37 Oil Link Breaks