This TikTok Finfluencer Says His 76-Year-Old Dad Can Spend 7.5% and Still Grow His Portfolio. Let's Check the Math.

Viral TikTok "finfluencer" Tyler Gardner claims his 76-year-old father can stay 100% in stocks.

David McKnight breaks down exactly where that approach falls apart. Additionally, he reveals the retirement planning strategy that actually makes a 100% stocks allocation safe, so a market downturn doesn't force you to sell at the worst possible time.

Show Notes In this episode, David McKnight fact-checks a viral TikTok video from "finfluencer" Tyler Gardner explaining why his 76-year-old father is still invested 100% in stocks.

David stresses that he doesn't have a problem with being invested 100% in stocks under the right circumstances, and that a retiree can absolutely have 100% of his portfolio in stocks.

However, Tyler's explanation for why this works is where David says we have some problems, and he breaks down his rationale.

Tyler claims that by investing in dividend stocks, he can get about 3.5% return from dividends alone, then sell 4% of his stocks and live off 7.5% per year – all while still having his portfolio grow at 4%.

David points out a mistake Tyler made in his calculations: if you take out 3.5% in dividends and sell another 4% of the portfolio, you've removed 7.5% of an 8% total return, leaving roughly 0.5%, not 4%.

Tyler predicts his portfolio to be worth three times the initial investment in just 15 years… but David notes that you don't get to spend most of the return and simultaneously compound as though you didn't spend any of it.

One thing Tyler forgets to mention in his approach is sequence of returns risks, something that's heavily impacted by the order in which you experience returns whenever you're withdrawing money from your portfolio in retirement.

Tyler concludes that even if the market had its worst 20 years in history and returned only 4% a year on average, he'd wind up in the same scenario as if he'd invested 100% in bonds.

However, "Average returns aren't a predictor of whether or not your strategy will survive", says David.

Two retirees with the exact same return over 20 years, without taking withdrawals, would have identical ending values…unless what considers withdrawals too.