Market Top Like 2022? - 09/24/26

We've seen this movie before...or have we?

A viewer recently sent me an interesting comparison between the 2022 stock-market top and what we're seeing in the market today.

At first glance, there are some similarities that are difficult to ignore.

Stocks have enjoyed a powerful run. Valuations are elevated. Inflation is creating problems again. Treasury yields are surging. And perhaps most importantly, the Federal Reserve has started raising interest rates again.

Sound familiar?

On today's TraderMerlin, we're pulling up the charts and putting 2022 vs. 2026 side by side.

Not because history has to repeat itself—but because understanding what caused the 2022 bear market can help us identify which warning signs actually matter today.

Remember what happened in 2022.

The Federal Reserve began raising rates in March and ultimately delivered an extraordinary 425 basis points of tightening during the year. Bond yields surged, liquidity tightened, valuations compressed and the S&P 500 eventually fell roughly 25% from its peak, while many technology and speculative-growth stocks suffered significantly larger declines.

Now fast-forward to today.

The Fed has begun another tightening cycle. The 10-year Treasury yield has pushed above 5%, borrowing costs are rising, inflation pressures remain a concern and markets are increasingly pricing the possibility of additional rate hikes.

Meanwhile, the major indexes remain relatively close to record territory.