Diesel is Spiking. The Market Has the AI Losers Wrong | Are You Betting Too Big?

<p>Finding a good investment and knowing how much to put into it are different problems. This week's Excess Returns Weekly Wrap connects overlooked AI opportunities, the risks of concentrated portfolios, and the position-sizing mistakes that can turn favorable odds into losses.</p><p>Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler revisit conversations with Michael Baron, Eric Pachman and Kris Abdelmessih. Michael Baron explains why some apparent AI losers may have valuable data advantages and how his firm manages investments as they become large positions. Eric Pachman traces diesel costs into consumer inflation and shares a grocery-price study that challenged his own assumptions. Kris Abdelmessih explains why surviving long enough to benefit from an edge depends on how much you bet.</p><p>Topics covered:</p><ul><li>Michael Baron on AI opportunities beyond the Magnificent Seven</li><li>Why proprietary data may protect software companies from disruption</li><li>Eric Pachman on diesel prices, freight surcharges and the path into CPI</li><li>Why refinery constraints and crude-oil differences matter for fuel supply</li><li>Kris Abdelmessih on how favorable odds can still lead to ruin</li><li>Michael Baron on letting winners run while managing leverage and portfolio correlations</li><li>Eric Pachman's comparison of Kroger prices with the government's food basket</li><li>Why national averages can differ from your household's inflation experience</li><li>Kris Abdelmessih on fractional Kelly and uncertainty about your true edge</li><li>Applying position-sizing lessons to investing, gambling and insurance decisions</li></ul><p>Watch the full interviews:</p><p>Michael Baron: AI beneficiaries, Tesla, SpaceX and managing concentrated growth portfolios<br /><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KVCgmorfy50" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KVCgmorfy50</a></p><p>Eric Pachman: What headline economic data misses about jobs, diesel costs and grocery prices<br /><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5bXUBAPRvr0" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5bXUBAPRvr0</a></p><p>Kris Abdelmessih: The Kelly Criterion, bet sizing and staying in the game<br /><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlTPdaT-X6U" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlTPdaT-X6U</a></p><p>Chapters:<br />00:00 Introduction and Michael Baron on overlooked AI winners<br />09:24 Eric Pachman o