Monday, August 3rd 2026 — AXTI Rips, Reddit Craters, and the Conspiracy Corner Goes Full Surveillance State

Show Notes — 2026-08-03

Markets kicked off Monday, August third with a wild pre-market: AXT Inc exploded nearly thirty percent on a semiconductor contract, Amazon surged sixteen percent on blowout earnings, and Reddit cratered twenty percent as AI threatens its entire data licensing business model. Meanwhile Trump called off a planned Iran strike and proposed new talks, oil dropped five percent, and New York state filed a thirty-six billion dollar lawsuit against Kalshi for allegedly running an illegal gambling operation.

**In This Episode**

- **AXT Inc +29.5%** — Semiconductor substrate maker rips on domestic chip production contract; Nigel breaks down the options action

- **Amazon +16.4%** — Massive earnings beat across AWS, advertising, and revenue; the glow-up quarter

- **Reddit -20.4%** — Slowing user growth and stalled AI licensing deals hammer the stock; existential questions about its data business

- **Trump / Iran Talks** — Trump calls off planned strike, proposes talks begin Monday; Tehran hasn't confirmed; oil drops 5%

- **New York Sues Kalshi** — $36 billion lawsuit alleges prediction market platform is running an illegal gambling operation

- **Zuckerberg AI Pivot** — Widely shared report claims Meta's AI push is underperforming; Hannah breaks down why it threatens the ad model

- **OnlyMarms** — California wildlife researchers launch an OnlyFans for a chubby marmot named Carl after funding dries up

- **Artist AI Surveillance Boycott** — Rage Against the Machine members and hundreds of artists sign pledge to boycott facial recognition venues

- **Rep. Massie Flock Camera Bill** — Federal legislation announced to defund license plate reader network funding streams