America Doesn’t Have a Housing “Shortage” (It’s Something Much Worse)

For years, we’ve been told that the United States is short millions of homes, and that building more units is the key to solving the affordable housing crisis. But a 2024 study from Kirk McClure and Alex Schwartz reaches a different conclusion and suggests that the housing shortage narrative may be built on a shakier foundation than we’ve been led to believe.

 

Kirk, professor emeritus at the University of Kansas, joins today’s show to dig into the actual Census data gathered from 2000-2020 and whether it really points to a nationwide shortage…or something much different.

 

If we don’t have a supply problem, why are homes and rents still so expensive? Should policymakers rethink their push for new construction? And where could government dollars have the greatest impact?

 

We’ll unpack the implications of Kirk’s findings, why home prices can remain elevated when there are millions of vacant homes available, and whether today’s housing policies are actually helping the people who need it most. These answers could upend how we think about the housing crisis and give real estate investors another perspective on where the market might be headed.

In This Episode We Cover

Findings from Kirk’s research on America’s housing “shortage”

Where government dollars can actually help solve housing affordability

The real reason home prices and rents haven’t fallen, despite oversupply

Why declining household formation is tied to affordability, not housing supply