The Most Important Inflation Report Of The Year

In this episode, Nik explains why he thinks this week's inflation data is the most important economic release of the year, with PPI and CPI landing days before the Fed's September 16 decision. He covers why treasury bills lead the Fed and have been pricing hikes since May, how Kevin Warsh ending forward guidance leaves the market guessing into every meeting, and why core CPI running at 0.2% a month makes an immediate hike unlikely while a 0.4% print would change everything. Nik also lays out why he believes the Fed will hold, what a hiking cycle would do to liquidity, and the three sources he recommends for understanding the global balance sheet.