View from Canada: ‘We’re Not Dealing with Much That’s Rational’

A retired career ambassador doubts Canadians will ever trust the U.S. as they did before Trump.

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More than a year and a half into his second administration, it remains unclear why exactly Trump decided to pick a fight with Canada. What began with threats to make the United States’ closest partner the 51st state has escalated into an open trade war — and a fundamental reassessment of a relationship that Canadians had long taken for granted.

After Washington imposed 50-percent tariffs on billions of dollars in Canadian goods, Prime Minister Mark Carney walked away from negotiations that he said would undermine Canada’s sovereignty. Ottawa’s retaliatory tariffs took effect this week, as it tries to reduce its economic and security dependence on the United States.

To explore what this historic rupture means for Canada, I invited Patricia Fortier, a retired career ambassador, onto the latest episode of The Diplomacy Podcast. During 34 years in the Canadian Foreign Service, she served as ambassador to Peru and Bolivia, as well as the Dominican Republic, and headed the political section at the Canadian Embassy in Washington.

Fortier said that Canadians no longer view the U.S. government as a reliable partner, which she described as “a very big change.” Although Carney has tried to respond calmly and rationally to Trump’s hostility, she added, “we’re not dealing with much that is rational.”

The rupture has already changed the daily behavior of Canadians, Fortier said. Travel to the United States has plummeted, while consumers and provincial governments have boycotted U.S. products. According to government figures, Canadian visits to the United States fell by a quarter last year, the steepest sustained decline on record outside the Covid-19 pandemic.

Canada is now drawing closer to Europe and expanding its engagement with countries such as China and India, Fortier said. It’s also considering non-U.S. suppliers for fighter jets, submarines and other defense systems — choices that would have been difficult to imagine when Washington was still regarded as Ottawa’s indispensable ally.

Rebuilding a functional relationship will remain necessary, because neither country can change its geography, Fortier said, but it may never again resemble the partnership that existed before Trump.

“Coercion only lasts as long as you can coerce,” she said. “But if countries maintain their sovereignty and turn away, then the power of coercion starts to diminish.”

To hear what all this means for Canadian diplomacy, watch or listen to the episode above — or on one of these platforms: YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nicholaskralev.substack.com