Will Investors Really Shift to New Builds?

Australia's latest housing policies are designed to make home ownership more accessible—but are they creating unintended consequences for investors, renters, and the broader property market?

In this episode, property data expert Kent Lardner returns to examine what the numbers are already revealing about investor behaviour following the Federal Budget, and why the government's expectations may not match reality.

Drawing on decades of experience analysing suburb-level property data, Kent explains why many investors are unlikely to rush into newly built properties despite generous tax incentives. Instead, many may simply sit on the sidelines, waiting for political uncertainty to settle, while established investment properties gradually disappear from the rental pool. The conversation explores why cash flow alone rarely drives successful investing, how inventory levels tell a very different story from headline listings data, and why inner-ring suburbs across Sydney and Melbourne may prove far more resilient than many expect.

The discussion also dives into the changing behaviour of buyer's agents, the rise of "spreadsheet investing," Brisbane's slowing momentum, and the lessons Australia may be able to learn from New Zealand's recent property market correction. Along the way, Veronica, Chris, and Kent challenge some of the biggest assumptions currently dominating the housing debate—including whether encouraging investors into new developments will actually improve affordability.

Whether you're an investor, buyer's agent, homeowner or simply trying to understand where Australia's property market is heading next, this episode offers a data-driven perspective that cuts through the political headlines and focuses on what the numbers are really saying.

Episode Highlights02:20 Will the Budget Really Change Investor Behaviour?

05:37 The Supply Problem Nobody's Talking About

07:03 Are Buyer's Agents Chasing the Wrong Strategy?

12:13 What Happens When Investors Leave the Market?

25:42 Why Listings Don't Tell the Whole Market Story

30:54 The Truth About Investor Demand Right Now

33:02 Why Buyers Disappear in Falling Markets